Covid Close To You

[Bart_]

I figured the increased total was what was reported each day; take yesterdays cumulative total, add that day's death toll, new total number. There are separately moving averages of (found) cases, deaths, positivity rates etc. I'm skipping all that and just reporting the concrete number of deaths. Basically to figure out if its getting better or worse by seeing how many days it takes for 10,000 more people to die and to see if the total finally stops growing.

The CDC said there's a big factor times more active sick cases out there vs those that have been detected (reported) so far via testing. Makes sense since only some portion of the population gets tested. But if you die it does't get missed cause you did or didn't initially get found via testing, so it's a more solid indicator of how things are going. Sorry if this sounds grim, but it just kind of is a grim phenomenon, a fatal sickness. Depending how your luck went, genes, resistance etc.

be safe and take care

 

[DSMc]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/

"As of November 24, 2020, an average of around 936.5 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. since the first case was confirmed in the country on January 20th. On an average day, nearly 8,000 people die from all causes in the United States,"

Yes, 936.5 have been counted as covid-19 deaths per day, but that should not overshadow or diminish the other 7,063.5 others that have also died that same day. Just because they did not die of covid-19 does not mean they are not sorely missed by those who loved them.

 

[Njdelaney]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/

"As of November 24, 2020, an average of around 936.5 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. since the first case was confirmed in the country on January 20th. On an average day, nearly 8,000 people die from all causes in the United States,"

Yes, 936.5 have been counted as covid-19 deaths per day, but that should not overshadow or diminish the other 7,063.5 others that have also died that same day. Just because they did not die of covid-19 does not mean they are not sorely missed by those who loved them.

I don't think anyone is suggesting otherwise.

 

[DSMc]

By default, yes they are.

 

[Lumberjack]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/

"As of November 24, 2020, an average of around 936.5 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. since the first case was confirmed in the country on January 20th. On an average day, nearly 8,000 people die from all causes in the United States,"

Yes, 936.5 have been counted as covid-19 deaths per day, but that should not overshadow or diminish the other 7,063.5 others that have also died that same day. Just because they did not die of covid-19 does not mean they are not sorely missed by those who loved them.

If it’s Covid caused deaths, then there should be, on average, ~940 excess deaths per day which would show up better on a weekly or monthly timeframe. (Shouldn’t overshadow the ~8k other deaths each day)

it’s been at least a couple months since I looked at excess deaths data and ran the totals... that data also has the same 2-8 week lag that most death statistics have.

 

[colb]

If it’s Covid caused deaths, then there should be, on average, ~940 excess deaths per day which would show up better on a weekly or monthly timeframe. (Shouldn’t overshadow the ~8k other deaths each day)

it’s been at least a couple months since I looked at excess deaths data and ran the totals... that data also has the same 2-8 week lag that most death statistics have.

I don't think there should intrinsically be excess deaths per day. For instance, if fewer people drive, or they drive less, then auto deaths will be down.

These are the content of social science natural experiments, which lack the controls present in many studies.

I think the focus of the matter should be on asking health professionals if what they are seeing is normal. I follow a friend on Facebook who is a retired administrator at U. Florida Health. He follows forums like ours in his field. Today he posted several comments about the current state of forum members' hospitals. The comments included hospitals using tents to expand capacity, seeing adult patients in the pediatrics unit if the case looked straightforward, patients being held in the ER in queue to get a spot in an ICU bed, reports of highest admission levels, addition of morgues, sending people home because hospitals are full, postponing elective surgeries, community spread among staff, etc.

The thing about it is that in many cases the professionals and the community are living different lives - the ptsd-type of life in the hospitals and the willful ignorance life in the community. This is causing professionals to stop caring - to leave the workplace, to not give a shit about their patient who "did not realize" what was up until it was too late for themselves or someone close to them. We need people to just baseline adult and it is not happening.

 

[rico]

There really is no way to spin this... We have lost 263,000 Americans to this virus in the last 10+ months. Despite this FACT we have a certain demographic here in America who has managed to turn something as serious as a global pandemic into a fucking culture war...Like many of the other very serious issues threatening our future these folks have chosen to listen to the words of an extremely dishonest demagogue, instead of listening to science, the experts, and those who actually know what the fuck they are talking about.

 

[rustykfd]

You can still buy tobacco, booze, (now weed and coke/meth/heroin), cars, steak and taters, deep fried everything......... are they next? I’m confused!!


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[colb]

You can still buy tobacco, booze, (now weed and coke/meth/heroin), cars, steak and taters, deep fried everything......... are they next? I’m confused!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your concerns are legitimate, but they are separate from the 1 in 1000 death rate (plus non-death illness associated with the virus) our country is experiencing. We are really willfully dumb right now and it's up to me and you to change that before the country eats itself from the inside out. You can treat a virus like the plague that it is *and* aggitate for better regulations/disregulation of steak and taters.

 

[colb]

Just read a post to Facebook from the brother-in-law of my best friend - A week ago his mother had her 94th birthday and was doing great. Today, she has Covid-19 and is being placed on hospice. They are soliciting prayers that she does not suffer. Covid close to me.

 

[Bart_]

I think we're just crossing 270,000 today.. Wednesday to Tuesday, 6 days for 10,000. Medium fast?

 

[colb]

I think we're just crossing 270,000 today.. Wednesday to Tuesday, 6 days for 10,000. Medium fast?

If it was bullets in Afghanistan we would forego "medium" for way too fast.

 

[SomethingWitty]

Okay. Everything was shut down. We procrastinated. Now it's taking hold well enough that nothing is going to stop it.
Has everyone who will die now had a good year? Lived like it was their last?
Many have not. They've been bullied or scared into isolation and some bizarro world where the only interaction with people that hasn't changed dramatically for the worse is through a screen that everyone admits they look at too much.
We're all going to die. Why is everyone so unaware of this fact?

I still say that I am disappointed in this plague. It's killing virtually nobody. It hasn't even set us back a single month of births yet... A quick Google shows that around 3.5-3.9 million americans are born per year. That's 300k per month.
Remember H1N1? It may have cleared 500k in the first year. That's this caliber, and it killed far more young people than Covid. 95% of these deaths are in people over 60, with half being over 80.
Humanity has seen plagues. It has also seen empires fall. This isn't worth the potential costs.

My grandfather passed a couple of months ago after an extended hospital stay. My grandmother couldn't visit him. They had been married for 46 years. I don't know that they had ever been apart for that long.

 

[Bart_]

It slipped past me, must have been yesterday because today Sunday is 282,000. Tuesday to Saturday 10,000 in 5 days. Bit faster. Canada is up to 12 or 13,000 now, total.

There's a simulated video of being intubated as some the last personal contact you get before it all goes south. Ugh. A doctor made it as a PSA.

My condolences. Stay safe.

 

[rico]

Remember H1N1? It may have cleared 500k in the first year. That's this caliber, and it killed far more young people than Covid. 95% of these deaths are in people over 60, with half being over 80.
Humanity has seen plagues. It has also seen empires fall. This isn't worth the potential costs.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe H1N1 killed a little under 12,500 in the US while Covid is currently at 283,000 deaths in the US and on coarse to kill 500,000 Americans by early spring. Definitely not of the same caliber...

 

[SomethingWitty]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe H1N1 killed a little under 12,500 in the US while Covid is currently at 283,000 deaths in the US and on coarse to kill 500,000 Americans by early spring. Definitely not of the same caliber...

Maybe I jumped track a little, but that was the higher end of the global estimate for the first year. 80 percent of those deaths were people under 60.
It seems to me that it will be a while before we reach that number of people with things left to do in their life from Covid.

 

[Bart_]

Made 290,000 today I think that was 5 days for another 10,000. Same old... One notable new record 3,000 dead in a single day.

 

[DSMc]

Other than the propagation of fear and depression, I'm not sure what is beneficial in these posts.

This is 'news'.

 

[Bart_]

300,000 today and the first vaccine doses done Stateside. There's now the hope that improvement may occur and with a little psychological impetus, avoid Covid fatigue and stay masked up. Even Canada is tanking but I'm seeing near 100% masks at stores, gas stations etc. Gives a guy some hope that good behaviour might make a dent. Heard Stateside was 70 something % mask wearing, not ideal but a step towards success.

 

[Bart_]

320,000 today. I'm going by 20,000 now to reduce the posts. There's a new strain floating around since September, now confirmed in the U.K. that's 70% more transmissible. Apparently the first strain in China wasn't as transmissible as the variant that came over in the early days from Europe, so this is the 3rd variation.

Up here in Ontario we're in the crapper and going into lockdown everywhere. Sobering.

Mask up, do the right stuff and stay on the good side of healthy. Best as you can, Merry Christmas.