One dead, Biltmore Estate, Asheville

Stumpsprouts said:
I know we are partially talking in hypotheticals, and when attempting to talk about this specific tree we are just guessing based of a couple images, but it does seem clear there was significant rot on the main stem that would have been visible from the ground on this tree.
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Before or after the failure?

From the pictures you posted (print article), I assumed the decay that was viewable was from the area where the limb broke out (apparent v crotch). The decay would have been nowhere near as apparent while the limb was attached. One would assume that there would be some decay/defect there, especially if there was a pocket on the top, but not necessarily to that extent. Plus, how high off the ground was this limb attached to the tree? Now apply a level 1 assessment from the ground prior to failure...would that decay be obvious and significant?

I would say if cables, pocket on top of v crotch, target location, species etc, it probably may have warranted farther levels of inspection/assessment
 
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Dan Cobb said:
Biltmore draws 1.7 million visitors annually. If they're open 360 days/year, 3 people per car, and everyone arrives in a 4 hour span, that's about 6.5 cars per minute going in, one about every 9 seconds on average.
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But that isn't 24 hours a day. If is is only busy 4-6 hours a day (busier on weekends vs week days) then that potentially drives down the target occupancy.
 
Dan Cobb said:
Biltmore draws 1.7 million visitors annually. If they're open 360 days/year, 3 people per car, and everyone arrives in a 4 hour span, that's about 6.5 cars per minute going in, one about every 9 seconds on average.
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I realize that you’re trying to come up with a head count in order to come up with exposure.

Here are some complications to add to your calculations

If 1.7 million go in 1.7 come out. If the tree was located between the two castle like towers T the Entrance then all in out traffic is on tat road. Look at a map and you’ll see the first road split. One goes sorta straight and one tees off to the south/left.

During the off season, post Holidays to spring flower season the ticket checking doesn’t happen at the Tower Entrance. Guests still come in but no stopping

The Guest count in te winter really drops off! Te Estate isn’t a ghost town but close

Some Estate employees come trough te main Entrance everyday. Tats going to add exposure numbers too

I doubt that The Estate would share attendance data with you though.

How accurate does the traffic head count need to be for our discussion?
 
I have never been to biltmore when it wasnt packed to the gills. winter, summer, mondays and sundays. pretty much a constant stream of cars. I really hope they dont wack all the trees. When I was in college, a large tree came down and crushed a car with students in it. A few months later there were a lot less trees on campus.
 
I think the presumed guest count, if correct, is a double edged sword and perhaps a bit sharper on one side than the other. While it can speak to the occupancy rate of the road accessing the property, it will also be used effectively by defense to demonstrate ongoing due diligence by showing how many people over the years have accessed the property without mishap.
 
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Stumpsprouts said:
I was planning on doing the traq training, but a case like this gives me pause. I’d love to hear from folks who have used traq for a while and whether it is the best approach to managing risks or just really subjective.
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Take it, It's very worth while for nothing other than a brain exercise. Yes, its subjective but it's more about justifying your subjectivity.
There is nothing that states you Shall use the matrix or the like. There is even a valid argument tossing the matrix out!
 
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