Fu*%face Von Clownstick

Boomslang said:
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn’t another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— Prof. David Honig, Indiana University
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Boomslang said:
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He sounds like a perfectly reasonable individual to negotiate with.

If he doesn't need us, why not cut off all trade?

The time for trying to connect and be open minded is over. His head should be on a stake in front of the White House.
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What a dick!

I didn't expect anything more than a 7th grade understanding of economics from him, but now I'm starting to wonder about his inner circle as well.
 
levi r said:
Unlimited energy? And who does Canada need military protection from? :ROFLMAO:
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As much fun as it would be to say America we need protection from, really, it's Russia. That was the whole point of having joint military exercises in the Arctic.

If you look at a globe there are 3 buffers between Russia and the United States: Canada, Greenland, and Santa Claus.

As much as he wants Greenland and Canada for their resources, they also serve as strategic positions. With climate change opening up the northwest passage it's poised to become a major trade route in the future and a direct line to Russia.
 
rico said:
I apologize if I am overstepping here, but did you vote for Trump?
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Actually yes, I think you are overstepping but the answer is no. I can't stand Trump. That fact however will not control my life or alter my reasoning ability or interfere with how I interpret events.
 
Boomslang said:
As much fun as it would be to say America we need protection from, really, it's Russia. That was the whole point of having joint military exercises in the Arctic.

If you look at a globe there are 3 buffers between Russia and the United States: Canada, Greenland, and Santa Claus.

As much as he wants Greenland and Canada for their resources, they also serve as strategic positions. With climate change opening up the northwest passage it's poised to become a major trade route in the future and a direct line to Russia.
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someone has been playing Risk
 
DSMc said:
Actually yes, I think you are overstepping but the answer is no. I can't stand Trump. That fact however will not control my life or alter my reasoning ability or interfere with how I interpret events.
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I do appreciate you clarifying that, as I too was under the impression that you did vote for him.
 
DSMc said:
Actually yes, I think you are overstepping but the answer is no. I can't stand Trump. That fact however will not control my life or alter my reasoning ability or interfere with how I interpret events.
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How are you interpreting the events that have unfolded these past 2 weeks?
 
Boomslang said:
Well then do something...

You put an egomaniacal, sociopath in the most powerful position in the world and when shit starts hitting the fan you think sitting around the fire with a peace pipe singing Kumbaya is going to do anything?...

What indications have you been given that the current administration is rational?...

...The time for trying to connect and be open minded is over. His head should be on a stake in front of the White House.
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Oh I do may things to maintain and secure my way of life. I have never had enough faith in others to entrust or depend on them.

You implied that 'I' had something to do with this and in the same paragraph insinuated, by content, that I'm a pacifist. Laughable to the first and could be a consequential mistake on the latter. But what the hell, keep looking for labels.

Lastly, while questioning large groups of peoples " rational" thinking, you come across as a being completely unhinged with some of your statements.
 
DSMc said:
Oh I do may things to maintain and secure my way of life. I have never had enough faith in others to entrust or depend on them.

You implied that 'I' had something to do with this and in the same paragraph insinuated, by content, that I'm a pacifist. Laughable to the first and could be a consequential mistake on the latter. But what the hell, keep looking for labels.

Lastly, while questioning large groups of peoples " rational" thinking, you come across as a being completely unhinged with some of your statements.
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You don't do well with hyperbole do you?

"You" is not directed at YOU, it's a generalization of the American populace.

And if you're referring to putting your presidents head on a stick, I don't believe that to be unhinged at all. Death comes for everyone, some just need it sooner.
 
Boomslang said:
You don't do well with hyperbole do you?

"You" is not directed at YOU, it's a generalization of the American populace.

And if you're referring to putting your presidents head on a stick, I don't believe that to be unhinged at all. Death comes for everyone, some just need it sooner.
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Just don't forget that then jd gets the crown. If you get him, there's another cult member ready to try to take control of the cult. trump really let a mean ass cat out of the bag, and there are enough people here who just think that all that shit their propaganda of choice has been saying is true, that it feels likely that even if he dies, the cult will grow and fester like scientology.
 
Boomslang said:
Well then do something. I haven't heard a single Republican or Democrat politician stick their head out of the sand long enough to sneeze let alone try and stand up for their core values. Or do they have core values any longer?

You put an egomaniacal, sociopath in the most powerful position in the world and when shit starts hitting the fan you think sitting around the fire with a peace pipe singing Kumbaya is going to do anything? Logic, compassion, and reasoning only work on people who are open to it. What indications have you been given that the current administration is rational?

Trump doesn't care about you, your family, your neighbour, your town, your business, none of it. He straight up says there's nothing you can do to stop me. He's taunting you at every turn.
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@Boomslang as a proud American who is both scared and disgusted by what is going on I would like to offer you a heartfelt apology for the way the leader of my country is behaving. It’s fucking dangerous and embarrassing, and for that I am truly sorry. This is a real watershed moment in American history and have my doubts as to whether the American people are up to the challenge. Sure hope I am wrong here for all of our sakes.
 
Matias said:
Just don't forget that then jd gets the crown. If you get him, there's another cult member ready to try to take control of the cult. trump really let a mean ass cat out of the bag, and there are enough people here who just think that all that shit their propaganda of choice has been saying is true, that it feels likely that even if he dies, the cult will grow and fester like scientology.
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I hear you and you're probably right, but I don't think DJ's inner circle are as batshit as he is. Or at least are more reasonable people that can maybe be talked to. But I could be very wrong about that.

Unfortunately, it seems he's bent on making the Untied States into a pariah state. Sucker punching your best friend in the face because "reasons" isn't the best international policy to take. Who would want to trade with the US now? Who would want to invest there? It's going to take a long time, but other countries are going to start shifting away from America. You haven't been the greatest country for quite a while and now he's pushing you farther down the list.
 
DSMc said:
Oh I do may things to maintain and secure my way of life. I have never had enough faith in others to entrust or depend on them.
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What I'm gathering from this statement is that since you've got yours the dealings of larger society are of little consequence to you. Is that correct?
 
Only children think of relationships between states in the terms of friendships.

Better to think of interests and power. When Canadian politicians sign agreements like NAFTA that undermine our sovereign autonomy then we are nolonger sovereign. The President of the USA has no obligation to look after the people or the economy of Canada. If he did then he would be our ruler. That is for our leaders. And it is their failure.
 
treegongfu said:
Only children think of relationships between states in the terms of friendships.

Better to think of interests and power. When Canadian politicians sign agreements like NAFTA that undermine our sovereign autonomy then we are nolonger sovereign. The President of the USA has no obligation to look after the people or the economy of Canada. If he did then he would be our ruler. That is for our leaders. And it is their failure.
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Trump pushed for, then signed the USMCA, lol. Now he doesn't like it.
 
treegongfu said:
Only children think of relationships between states in the terms of friendships.
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Appropriate, since international diplomacy isn't much different than playground politics.

Everyone runs in cliques.
The bigger kids typically get the better toys.
You agree to the rules before playing.
You stand up to bullies.
And, on occasion, a kid will get upset, take his ball, and go home....
So you find someone else to play with.
 
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