http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josep...-years_b_14461896.html?utm_hp_ref=arab-spring
My guess is Syria will be partitioned like India and Pakistan, only Sunni north and Shia south (this is the proposed endgame that Iran would like--area south of Damascus would be predominantly Shia, possibly in the hope that Hezbollah will emerge more prominently in Lebanon). There will be more bloodshed as people try to get over to the proper side, and the rift between certain subgroups of Shia and Sunni is pretty deep. If the US could act as an "honest broker" (no self-interest in the outcome like oil and making money or installing a puppet who sells the country out to big corporate interests), then it might be possible to help with self-determination which is healthier than nation-building. The Norwegians are more gifted at this type of diplomacy where they just facilitate the conversation and not try to leverage a deal for themselves (e.g., they got oil, don't need any from elsewhere).
Too many missed opportunities however. Not sure if all the king's horses and all the king's men...
But guess what? All of human history has been a constant stream of people moving from one place to another due to drought, extreme weather that destroys food supplies, conflict with other tribes, etc... Syrian conflict has roots in climate change when too many rural people could not farm and moved into the cities, and then couldn't find a way to survive in an over-crowded environment. Assad ignored the stress they were under, got peaceful demonstrators who called on him to do something or step aside, then started killing people who criticized him. So, is our moral choice to let him slaughter everyone he can, or do we consider how to care for those who had to get out to stay alive?
We just had that wet flannel, Kelly Anne Conway, say that any reporter who criticizes Trump should be fired. Seriously? Is there going to be a time when verbal threats become something more? This is a guy who freaks out on Twitter when some one makes a joke about something he's done. Could it get worse? Rumor has it that Assad allowed his prisons to be sites for "rendition" by the US of Al-Quaeda suspects during the Afghanistan/Iraq wars so wouldn't the big irony be protesters from America being flown there to be waterboarded?
We are not in normal times. Trump's election has brought us here. A lot of flammable material lying around and we have a pyro at the helm.