When drought becomes rout ©

[wulkowicz]

I started in the world of trees in 1988 when I tried to do something about that summer's drought. I was naïve, staggered by the complexity, and stunned by the professional indifference and inadequate suggestions.

That hasn't changed much at all. We're in another apocryphal time with the additional burdens of now recognizing that a continued drought is going to be a familiar companion.

Of course we can mumble sanctimoniously that this is some liberal plot to corrupt the larger picture of arguing about the discredited global warming theories. The trouble is, they are not propositions and theories, but are proven, established and recognized facts caught up in the game of manipulated talking points ladled out to a not very bright public.

The sad truth is not whether complicated facts are correct, but instead do they have a relevance that stands out above our pre-digested and homogenized crap?

Does this belong in a general discussion about trees?

Absolutely.

Its relevance is directly proportional to the time it takes us to wake up.


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Drought Is the Worst in 56 Years - NYTimes.com

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: July 17, 2012


A new report shows that the drought gripping the United States is the widest since 1956. The monthly State of the Climate drought report released on Monday by the National Climatic Data Center says 55 percent of the continental United States is in a moderate to extreme drought. That is the most since December 1956, when 58 percent of the country was covered by drought. This year, 80 percent of the United States is abnormally dry, and the drought expanded last month with the 14th-warmest and 10th- driest June on record going back to 1895.

The report says the Midwest has experienced its 7th-warmest and 10th-driest April-to-June period. And it says crops, pastures and rangeland have deteriorated at an alarming rate.

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Bob Wulkowicz © 2012

 

[oldoakman]

1956 may have been a year of widespread drought, but I happen to remember the winter of '56-'57 to be pretty snowy, at least in western Pennsylvania, and the spring and early summer of 1957 was a flood year in that area. I believe it will all balance out. We have to understand that no matter what, with our current condition, we cannot control the weather, at least in the short term, and we would have to have every person on the planet on board forever to control long term climate. Right now the best we can hope for is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, and if the worst gets too bad, it will be a dead planet.

 

[oceans]

A close friend of mine is an atmospheric chemist, and teaches at Brown University. We sometimes discuss the issue of climate change. She says that while the earth is generally increasing in temperature, some areas are getting colder.
The problem is that weather patterns are becoming more extreme, and that many species are lost as a result.
The principles of permaculture can be applied here. If we could all slow down the movement of water, on a global scale, we might begin to see some more regularity in our weather patterns. This means; more plants (everywhere, big time), as many foliage canopy levels as possible, saving old trees (they support SO much life), and maintaining a bio-diverse, mixed age forest wherever possible.
Or environment is an incredibly complex phenomenon, and it is this complexity that creates the balance.
The balance is being tested.

 

[Tom Dunlap]

Last fall at the TxISA annual conference the last speaker worked for San Antonio's water district. He spoke on the drought conditions happening in central Texas. Dendrochronology records were studied and he found that this is the worst drought ever. He said that it has been the quickest to form...drier in a shorter time span...going back to 1600's I think. Add to that fact with this area being the highest population growth areas in the US leaves us in severe water stress. Even if rain levels were to go back to traditional rates there is a slim chance that the reservoirs and aquifers will ever fill.

 

[mrtree]

We need not be so alarmist about the loss of species in natural habitats. Many (most) species have far more resilence than we know about. The issue is the man affected habitiats. A clear example is drought affecting trees in subdivions where soil is minimal and compaction, lack of organic matter and microbes and a myriad of other influences, make for tough growing conditions.

Arborists should be worried about these issues and finding workable solutions rather than worrying about the next tree removal and opening the canopy and increasing microclimate temperatures.

Ocean is entirely right, SLOW TREES, OLD ECOLOGY

 

[oceans]

Yes Mr. Tree. Trees will come and trees will go. Often by anothers hand if we stand and explain to a client how important their tree is. you're also right about soil. Arborists need to be caring for soil as much as canopies.

I know there is hope. Many cultures have corrected their water issues through re-forestation. It not only keeps the soil in their growing areas fertile and free from erosion, but it helps other people far down stream from them by preventing sudden movement of water. Think of a steadily moving stream vs. flood followed by drought.

Plants need soil...soil needs plants.

 

[wulkowicz]

Severe Drought Expected to Worsen Across the Nation - NYTimes.com

The latest outlook released by the National Weather Service on Thursday forecasts increasingly dry conditions over much of the nation’s breadbasket, a development that could lead to higher food prices and shipping costs as well as reduced revenues in areas that count on summer tourism. About the only relief in sight was tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast that could bring rain to parts of the South.

The unsettling prospects come at a time of growing uncertainty for the country’s economy. With evidence mounting of a slowdown in the economic recovery, this new blow from the weather is particularly ill-timed.

Already some farmers are watching their cash crops burn to the point of no return. Others have been cutting their corn early to use for feed, a much less profitable venture.

“It really is a crisis. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this in my lifetime,” Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois said after touring ravaged farms in the southern part of the state.

The government has declared one-third of the nation’s counties — 1,297 of them across 29 states — federal disaster areas as a result of the drought, which will allow farmers to apply for low-interest loans to get them through the disappointing growing season.

“It’s got the potential to be the worst drought we’ve ever had in Arkansas,” said Butch Calhoun, the state’s secretary of agriculture. “It’s going to be very detrimental to our economy.”

What is particularly striking about this dry spell is its breadth. Fifty-five percent of the continental United States — from California to Arkansas, Texas to North Dakota — is under moderate to extreme drought, according to the government, the largest such area since December 1956. An analysis released on Thursday by the United States Drought Monitor showed that 88 percent of corn and 87 percent of soybean crops in the country were in drought-stricken regions, a 10 percent jump from a week before. Corn and soybean prices reached record highs on Thursday, with corn closing just over $8.07 a bushel and soybeans trading as high as $17.49.

As of Sunday, more than half of the corn in seven states was in poor or very poor condition, according to the Department of Agriculture. In Kentucky, Missouri and Indiana, that figure is above 70 percent. Over all, only 31 percent of the nation’s corn is in good to excellent condition, compared with 66 percent at the same time last year.

“We’re expecting significant reductions in production potential yield, potential for corn and soybeans in particular,” said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the Department of Agriculture.

The withering corn has increased feed prices and depleted available feeding land, putting stress on cattle farmers. A record 54 percent of pasture and rangeland — where cattle feed or where hay is harvested for feeding — was in poor or very poor condition, according to the Department of Agriculture. Many farmers have been forced to sell their animals.

Because feed can account for nearly half of a cattle farmer’s costs, consumers could see a rise in the price of meat and dairy products, experts said. The high sustained heat has led the key components in milk, like fat and protein, to plummet more than usual, said Chris Galen, a spokesman for National Milk Producers Federation.

“This is due to cows eating less dry matter, and drinking more water ... which tends to thin out the resulting milk output,” he said in an e-mail. “So, if you’re a cheese maker, you need to use a little more milk to get the same volume of cheese output.”

<font color="red">Still, this year’s drought is not expected to be as rough on Midwestern agriculture as the one in 1988.</font>Corn yields were 22 percent under trend that year, and this year the Department of Agriculture is projecting yields 11 percent under trend — “though that could change in August,” said Joseph W. Glauber, the department’s chief economist.

Last year, crop insurers paid a record $11 billion in indemnity payments, and that “should serve as a good model for what farmers can expect this year,” Tom Zacharias, the president of National Crop Insurance Services, said in a news release.

But the impact of this drought has extended beyond farming. In Missouri, the torrid conditions have sparked forest fires that resemble the types of wildfires seen in the West. Already, 117 wildfires have burned in Missouri’s Mark Twain National Forest, a record-setting pace. Conditions have been so dry that there was a report of hay in a barn combusting on its own.

Meanwhile, water levels are falling in town reservoirs as well as major waterways like the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Barge and towboat operators have been reducing the size of their loads because of the low water, said Ann M. McCulloch, a spokeswoman for the American Waterways Operators. This means shipping operators, who transport a variety of goods from crops to gravel, have had to take more trips, increasing transportation costs that could be passed on to consumers.

Officials in Augusta, Kan., estimate that they have 110 days worth of water that they can draw from a nearby reservoir. The primary reservoir used for their municipal water supply dropped too low last year, the result of a drought in the area that started two years ago, said Josh Shaw, the assistant to the city manager. Indianapolis has put restrictions on water use; south of the city, Johnson County banned smoking at the county fair.

In Colorado, there is concern that the drought could damage forage that deer, elk and other game feed on in the fall. But the state also has seen advantages from the drought. Lower water levels have been helpful for fly fishing, and, with fewer places for animals to drink water, they will likely gather in concentrated areas, making conditions better for hunting.

And one Indianapolis painter is making the best of the situation, according to The Indianapolis Star, by starting a new arm of his business: painting brown lawns green.

Monica Davey contributed reporting from Chicago, Mashid Mohadjerin from Augusta, Kan., and Joanna M. Foster from New York.



Monica Davey contributed reporting from Chicago, Mashid Mohadjerin from Augusta, Kan., and Joanna M. Foster from New York.

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submitted by Bob Wulkowicz