Fu*%face Von Clownstick

It seems that some folks here have slightly misunderstood Occams Razor. It's not exactly the 'simplest' explanation that tends to be the correct one, but rather the one that requires the fewest number of assumptions. Bobs analysis also incorporates Hanlons Razor, which reminds us to never attribute to malice that which is sufficiently well explained by stupidity.

10 points for Bob
Wow, there really is a second person in the world that understands the basic concept of Occam's Razor!
 
I met a 20 something kid from Belarus who didn't know Lech Luenza from Poland, glasnost, perestroika or Gorbachev. They were erased from history for his upbringing. Never to be spoken of. Not a desirable kind of society IMO. Another guy keen on the Ukraine conflict was angry that Ukraine had attacked Russia provoking war. He also educated me that Russia was responsible for the creation of hundreds of countries. I just nodded and backed away calmly. Losing the truth has got to be bad juju. How could it be good?
 
I met a 20 something kid from Belarus who didn't know Lech Luenza from Poland, glasnost, perestroika or Gorbachev. They were erased from history for his upbringing. Never to be spoken of. Not a desirable kind of society IMO. Another guy keen on the Ukraine conflict was angry that Ukraine had attacked Russia provoking war. He also educated me that Russia was responsible for the creation of hundreds of countries. I just nodded and backed away calmly. Losing the truth has got to be bad juju. How could it be good?
That is sad, but seems that every country does that to some extent. There are certainly a lot of factual errors in this country written right into the history books.
 
Oh, big surprise! Scoundrels with a capital T:


Firm That Planned Trump’s Jan. 6 Rally Received No-Bid Contracts

This administration has given the company, staffed by the president’s allies, multimillion-dollar contracts it was guaranteed to win.

The Trump administration has bypassed regular procedures to award more than $13 million in contracts to the company that helped organize President Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, repeatedly creating hidden business opportunities that only one firm could win.

Those contracts have transformed Event Strategies Inc., staffed by veterans of Mr. Trump’s campaigns and first White House, from a minor federal contractor into the government’s highest-paid event planner. The firm has arranged celebrations of the Navy’s 250th birthday and a Treasury Department event to tout new savings accounts for children, called “Trump accounts.”

By law, federal agencies are generally supposed to seek competing bids before awarding contracts, to get the best value for taxpayers. Event Strategies won contracts that were particularly lucrative, the kind that other companies say they would have liked to win.

In at least five cases, other firms never got the chance.

Instead, the agencies invoked legal loopholes meant for special situations — instances of urgent need, or cases where only one specialized vendor could do a job — and gave the contracts to Event Strategies.

Of the $22 million in federal contracts that Event Strategies has received since Mr. Trump resumed office, the majority has come through these carve-outs. By contrast, less than 3 percent of the $120 million the Trump administration awarded to other event planners involved similar exemptions.

This firm’s special treatment is a stark example of the way that the second Trump administration has used taxpayer money to benefit people close to the president or his top officials.

Mr. Trump ran on the promise of “draining the swamp” of Washington influence-peddling. But in these cases, his agencies seem to have turned off a decades-old system meant to ensure an even playing field.

Mr. Trump has used Event Strategies since the start of his political career. The company organized his 2015 presidential campaign kickoff at Trump Tower, and has received more than $67 million from political committees supporting the president since then, public filings show.
Before last year, public databases show Event Strategies was paid just $186,000 for federal contracts during Mr. Trump’s first term, and nothing under President Biden.

Last September, its fortunes began to change.

The firm enrolled with the government as a preapproved contractor. Agencies routinely use this system to purchase common commercial goods and services without having to run the process from scratch, sharing opportunities among the authorized vendors and allowing them to decide whether to bid.

It was akin to a restaurant getting its menu onto the DoorDash app. Now, agencies could easily buy the company’s services, but there was no guarantee that they would. After all, there are more than 200 other event planners in the system.

Within a month, however, the firm landed millions of dollars in Navy contracts.

In late September, the Navy awarded Event Strategies a $189,000 contract to help organize a country music concert and cookout in Virginia Beach, Va., to celebrate the service’s 250th birthday. The next week, the Navy gave it two more contracts, for $5.2 million each, on back-to-back days. The firm was paid to provide services for a larger celebration in nearby Norfolk, Va., called “Titans of the Sea,” which featured flyovers, missile demonstrations and a presidential keynote.

Then, the next month, the Navy gave the firm a fourth contract, for $2.1 million, to plan events connected to the 250th anniversary in Annapolis, Md.

In a departure from standard practice, those contracts were offered to Event Strategies alone.

In three cases, the Navy designated the contracts as “only one source,” invoking an exemption meant for rare circumstances, such as when only one company provides a certain service or has unique or superior equipment. In the fourth case, it used a slightly different single-source exemption so rarely cited that it had never before been applied to event planning.

A Navy spokeswoman said that Event Strategies already had relevant experience, after working for two nonprofit groups planning celebrations for the country’s 250th birthday — America250, run by a bipartisan commission, and Freedom 250, run by Mr. Trump’s allies. As part of its work with America250, the firm had planned a military parade to celebrate the Army’s 250th birthday.

The firm “possessed the institutional knowledge, production infrastructure, and operational readiness required to rapidly deliver the full scope of services for the Navy and Marine Corps 250th celebrations,” the spokeswoman said. She said the Navy had been facing a “compressed timeline,” but declined to say why.

Public documents provide few details about what the firm did for the events, or the amounts it charged for labor and equipment, making it difficult to determine if Event Strategies charged a fair price.
 
iran maybe has more leverage than any country in the history of the world right now. its like if the united states attacked vietnam but also vietnam was the sole source of oxygen in the atmosphere
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they're committed to fight, israel has assassinated all the moderate politicians and moderating strategic leaders, yesterdays attack on their oil infrastructure led to the exact retaliation iran warned would happen and oil and lng infrastructure in saudi arabia, qatar and the uae was attacked in return.

turns out we're all going to be going green this century, against our will and without preparation thanks to our governments and ruling class opposing it the last fifty years.
 
however it is literally not possible to resolve this conflict while donald trump remains president, he'll blow up any peace plan and escalate immediately on a whim if he feels disrespected. america would have to take his social media away and manage him like the portuguese telling their bedridden dictator salazar he was still in charge for two years before his death
 
turns out we're all going to be going green this century, against our will and without preparation thanks to our governments and ruling class opposing it the last fifty years.
Haha. Something like that. Maybe more like going gang green, from everyone freezing their butts off when there’s no oil for their furnaces. We built this whole society off of oil, we are pulling the tablecloth out from underneath the whole shibang.
 
Haha. Something like that. Maybe more like going gang green, from everyone freezing their butts off when there’s no oil for their furnaces. We built this whole society off of oil, we are pulling the tablecloth out from underneath the whole shibang.
Iran strikes across Gulf energy infrastructure – 18–19 March



Qatar

• Ras Laffan Industrial City (major LNG hub) – multiple strikes, fires, extensive damage

• Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex – targeted in initial wave



United Arab Emirates

• Habshan Gas Facility – operations shut after strikes/interceptions

• Bab Oil Field – targeted during same wave

• Al Hosn Gas Field – identified as target



Saudi Arabia

• SAMREF Refinery (Yanbu) – drone strike reported

• Riyadh / central industrial zone – missiles intercepted, damage from debris

• Eastern region gas facilities – attempted drone strike



Kuwait

• Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery – drone strike, fires reported

• Mina Abdullah Refinery – also targeted in same wave



(The strikes followed US-Israeli attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Iran had issued prior evacuation warnings to Gulf energy sites.)

DUBAI/DOHA, March 19 (Reuters) - Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies ‌to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO told Reuters on Thursday.
Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said.
 
nobody is stopping, the united states wont put israeli aggression on a leash and iran can shut down the region basically indefinitely. you dont need more than a couple speedboats and cheap drones to interdict the strait and the american navy right now, at its peak ability, doesnt even dare to test it. although iran still isnt even technically blocking it, i see a pakistani ship was allowed through because they agreed to price their oil in yuan (instead of dollars) as iran demanded. and iran can just do that basically forever. there is literally no way to force privately owned tankers to transit against their will
 
nobody is stopping, the united states wont put israeli aggression on a leash and iran can shut down the region basically indefinitely. you dont need more than a couple speedboats and cheap drones to interdict the strait and the american navy right now, at its peak ability, doesnt even dare to test it. although iran still isnt even technically blocking it, i see a pakistani ship was allowed through because they agreed to price their oil in yuan (instead of dollars) as iran demanded. and iran can just do that basically forever. there is literally no way to force privately owned tankers to transit against their will
I wouldn’t go anywhere near that shit show if I owned a multimillion dollar boat.
 
the disruption to liquefied natural gas exports is already leading to major problems
'Demand Destruction has Begun' - economic damage the oil market crisis is causing in Asia
airlines are cutting flights, workplaces are going remote, petrochemical industries relying on LNG as a basic input are cutting production of other oil-derived chemicals and plastics, strategic reserves are being opened but those dont last forever. this is prompting a worldwide economic depression thats going to be worse than covid was
 
“Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might”. Same as it ever was.

I wish, for this particular goon, a quick descent into alcohol-induced dementia and a new career in cleaning toilets.
 

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