During the Rigging Research for the British HSE and Forestry Commission, we tested the rule of thumb discussed in this thread against the forces measured when logs were snatched in a snubbed-off scenario. It did not work all that well, I have to say.
The whole forces in rigging issue does not seem to be all that simple, maybe that's why there are no easy answers. But there is some information in the Rigging Report that may be helpful. The report has become a rather big ... but maybe it is worth for people in this thread to look at. Don't get scared off, it is a lot of pages. Chapter 8 deals with forces in rigging.
12 MB download from
http://www.tree-consult.org/html/eng/articles/rigging.htm click at the HSE link button.
The rule of thumb from Don Blair's book is discussed on page 187 and 242 (watch out, the pdf-reader may display different page numbers). In a snubbed-off scenario, the rule of thumb underestimates the shock-load for short logs and overestimtes for long logs (longer than 1.4 m).
Loads are much greater of course when logs are being snubbed off instead of let run. We also let two logs run, and tested tree tops against logs.
The results showed that for the trees that we dismantled and the lowering rope we used, the force at the rigging point was rather constant between 9 and 10.5 times the logs' weights. The tree tops with branches on generated roughly 6 to 7-times their weights as a peak force. When the leaves were still on, it was only 4.5 to 5.5-times. Though the tree tops in leaf were actually snubbed off, the forces were not much greater than for logs let run: these resulted in forces roughly 4.5 times the logs' weights - but we did only two of those.
But of course, the stem's reaction to snubbing off these tree tops was much more violent compared to letting log's run. In these cases, I believe shock load is not the only concern. Strong stem deflection and violent shaking may be more of an issue for the climber aloft ...
Check out the report if you like. There will be some articles in the future, one was in Tree Buzz already and is still on our webpage.