what weather reporting service should we trust for planning?

[james mauldin]

We rent a 23 or 28 ton when needed, love that

 

[trees4est]

I look at NWS first, TWC, Weather Prediction Center, and Wunderground, as well as a local weather site, try to make sense of it all and yes, look at the radar, as well as water vapor imagery and such. But especially on the NWS site, if you're looking at the point forecast for any site, you'll see a link for "forecast discussion". This has a lot of technical jargon and acronyms that may not make sense until you've been looking at it for a while, but it's where the forecasters explain why they're making the forecast that they are; what the computer models are saying, what conditions are at play, how confident they are in the forecast, etc. Some local offices are better than others about the detail, but usually you'll get some decent information. Weather Prediction Center and Hurricane Prediction Center also have discussions. I read those arcane corners of weather sites all the time, it's helpful and interesting.

 

[rawtree]

This is NOAA's Tabular forecast. Put in your zip code and scroll to bottom and click on Tabular Forecast:








This gives you hourly forecasts for multiple parameters you set up on the click boxes . If you look at this forecast the night before and then refresh it in the morning you can compare the numbers to see if conditions are trending towards the prediction or away. I am amazed with how accurate it can be. I've used it for everything from planning spray schedules to predicting flying conditions for paragliding. With practice you will gain confidence. After 15 years of living in this area I have become pretty good at judging local conditions and trends. But, what I've learned over these years, if it looks questionable it's best not to cancel the job the day before and to wait until you're actually on the job site.