Recession?

G

Gus_B

New member
Location
Toronto
Hi guys as many of you are aware I sell cranes for a living. I am a former crane operator and have been selling cranes for 25+ years.
During Covid lock-downs the unexpected happened and business increased by 5 fold for a full 3 years. It was was completely stupid and unexpected. Today we are seeing business return to normal 2018 levels which was still pretty darn good.
Can I get some feed back as to what you guys are seeing out there and if you've cancelled any equipment orders?
Times and interest rates seem to be getting tuff. I'm trying to get a read on what is going on out there with you guys so any input you can provide would be greatly appreciated.
 
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It’s going to be all over the place. Larger companies may be holding back. Smaller companies may be perpetually busy and constantly making an effort to build the finances to add to the arsenal. Those additions may not necessarily be a large new crane though….perhaps a decent used one.

Luckily, I am still booked out as far as I can see with a nice variety of job types. But I am in coastal New England. I could be a terrible service provider and probably still be in the same situation. Wait, maybe I am terrible?
 
I was on a waiting list to upgrade my knuckleboom, but I put a pause on it temporarily. We had the design mostly hammered out, but hadn't started ordering the components yet. At that time the wait list was around 14 months. With the down turn of the economy, and the tree companies I work for slowing down, etc I didn't want to risk it....or try to predict what things would look like over a year out.

I should say this was also my first year of business as strictly a crane service, after selling my tree company. So we also thought it was wise to wait at least year before going back on the list, to get a better idea of the work flow and costs.

Things have stayed pretty steady for me, but I know others that have gotten extremely slow.
 
One of the guys I work for just told us today that even though '18-'23 have been some of his busiest winters ever, since we had several of the worst fires in history, and everyone was Gung ho to have their trees worked on/removed, but this winter is shaping up to be his slowest ever. The guy I work with down in the city just bought a sweet used grapple truck, but he would never buy new equipment. The one guy I know who bought all new equipment over the last 3-4 years, riding high on the extra workload post fire, is crying that he's seriously on the verge of losing his house, which was the first of his major recent purchases.
 
oceans said:
It’s going to be all over the place. Larger companies may be holding back. Smaller companies may be perpetually busy and constantly making an effort to build the finances to add to the arsenal. Those additions may not necessarily be a large new crane though….perhaps a decent used one.

Luckily, I am still booked out as far as I can see with a nice variety of job types. But I am in coastal New England. I could be a terrible service provider and probably still be in the same situation. Wait, maybe I am terrible?
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I'm sure you're a solid company amigo if you're fully booked. In my industry as I'm sure in yours word of mouth and referrals mean something.
 
climbhightree said:
I was on a waiting list to upgrade my knuckleboom, but I put a pause on it temporarily. We had the design mostly hammered out, but hadn't started ordering the components yet. At that time the wait list was around 14 months. With the down turn of the economy, and the tree companies I work for slowing down, etc I didn't want to risk it....or try to predict what things would look like over a year out.

I should say this was also my first year of business as strictly a crane service, after selling my tree company. So we also thought it was wise to wait at least year before going back on the list, to get a better idea of the work flow and costs.

Things have stayed pretty steady for me, but I know others that have gotten extremely slow.
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I appreciate the feedback. Like I said I've been doing this for approximately 25+ years and I've never seen things so messy. One of the big issues is the delay in truck chassis. Something that was promised in 8 months is showing up many months later. It completely throws any sort of scheduling out the door. Not going to mention the truck manufacturer because they are all pretty much in the same position. Chassis deliveries are better at the moment.
 
Gus_B said:
I appreciate the feedback. Like I said I've been doing this for approximately 25+ years and I've never seen things so messy. One of the big issues is the delay in truck chassis. Something that was promised in 8 months is showing up many months later. It completely throws any sort of scheduling out the door. Not going to mention the truck manufacturer because they are all pretty much in the same position. Chassis deliveries are better at the moment.
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Yeah wait times are crazy. I was working for a company a couple of weeks ago, and their equipment guy dropped off a new chipper for them....that they were supposed to receive in July.
 
oceans said:
It’s going to be all over the place. Larger companies may be holding back. Smaller companies may be perpetually busy and constantly making an effort to build the finances to add to the arsenal. Those additions may not necessarily be a large new crane though….perhaps a decent used one.

Luckily, I am still booked out as far as I can see with a nice variety of job types. But I am in coastal New England. I could be a terrible service provider and probably still be in the same situation. Wait, maybe I am terrible?
Click to expand...
Your treerific!!!
 
We are booked 3 weeks out, and calls are still trickling in. Pretty busy for us, but I currently run a 2-3 person crew.

Debating putting in an order for a 19XPC this spring, and our 15XP is driving me nuts on high production days. I have spent most my years around 280HD, 1990XP, etc.

We are going into winter with a huge savings which should get us through any slow times.
 
Gus_B said:
I appreciate the feedback. Like I said I've been doing this for approximately 25+ years and I've never seen things so messy. One of the big issues is the delay in truck chassis. Something that was promised in 8 months is showing up many months later. It completely throws any sort of scheduling out the door. Not going to mention the truck manufacturer because they are all pretty much in the same position. Chassis deliveries are better at the moment.
Click to expand...
Well, I can say this; my company is myself and my wife along with a nice group of other owner operators to help as subs. So being that small will play a role in our back log. Perhaps more so, if there was a block of 100 homes say 10 by 10, we will only ever work at 10 of those houses during the good times and not so good times. Then, theres that one house that is always having work done throughout the year even in the worst of times. I’m guessing many people having tree work done are recession proof. So a smaller list of good clientele might be more steady that a broad list of maybes. I’m not set up to work at scale, so I can’t really say.
 
Its crazy. I'm in year 6 of the biz. 2023 dropped off like I've never seen before. Last year at this time I was considering buying a second truck and hiring another operator. Currently I'm working 2-3 days a week and have gross sales 65% behind where I was last year for the year. I can't imagine myself considering the purchase of anything any time soon. I've seen it slow, but never this slow in 25 years in the industry. Best of luck to you with your business.
 
Steve Connally said:
Its crazy. I'm in year 6 of the biz. 2023 dropped off like I've never seen before. Last year at this time I was considering buying a second truck and hiring another operator. Currently I'm working 2-3 days a week and have gross sales 65% behind where I was last year for the year. I can't imagine myself considering the purchase of anything any time soon. I've seen it slow, but never this slow in 25 years in the industry. Best of luck to you with your business.
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Thank you very much for your brutal honesty Steve. I sell a lot of drywall cranes and those crane sales recently have almost come to a stand still. I always use the drywall industry as a first alert indicator as to what the economy is doing.
No drywall sales is not a good signal. I get it's not trees but in my world it makes sense without going into a detailed explanation.
 
My phone has been quiet.

I bid an insurance job recently a lost it to the USAA insurance company preferred contractor.

Just did 3 good- sized projects.

Reached out to a customer who I was to busy to schedule, earlier in fall, but no dice. Then, I answered a call (usually don't unless it's a customer or they are in my preferred market as indicated by the phone prefix) from a landline near me.
Referral- bid request.
Hung up and the phone rang. An acquaintance and customer wanted to know if I had a grinder for their neighbor's stump.
Then, half an hour later, got a FB message from another friend whose neighbor needs pruning (good neighborhood, normally farther than I travel (less than 10 miles, in town).


I still have longterm customers who are well-heeled and have hazard work for property protection whom I can contact.

Dormant pruning season is coming, and orchard season, which generally has regulars who need a bit more than just home orchard work.


Not stressing, and also don't mind not having any payments.
I was planning to buy a new dump trailer and non-dumping trailer. Holding off a minute... in part just from being too busy to shop.
 
definitely a weird year. people have cut back and are more hesitant to spending.

knuckle boom cranes are awesome but lets be real, who the f#ck can afford one?! they are going to cost over $10k / month just to own it, plus operating cost.

something has to give, either the cost of equipment or finance , because right now everything is unaffordable .

ps, and no offense, i have no sympathy for sales man, insurance agents, bankers and vendors. they have raped and taken advantage of the little guy the last couple of years. the economy will even out and there will be deals on equipment.
show no mercy
 
bck said:
definitely a weird year. people have cut back and are more hesitant to spending.

knuckle boom cranes are awesome but lets be real, who the f#ck can afford one?! they are going to cost over $10k / month just to own it, plus operating cost.

something has to give, either the cost of equipment or finance , because right now everything is unaffordable .

ps, and no offense, i have no sympathy for sales man, insurance agents, bankers and vendors. they have raped and taken advantage of the little guy the last couple of years. the economy will even out and there will be deals on equipment.
show no mercy
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Scary stuff but reality I’m seeing the same and agree
 
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