How does Coronavirus COVID-19 alter our workflow?

colb

Well-Known Member
Other than vacationing on cruise lines, how is the covid-19 affecting us, and how should it affect us? I've stopped shaking hands, but I have to keep handling ropes, saws, and other stuff that my crew are handling as well. I have to keep pumping gas, buying groceries, etc. I was at a rec climb on Saturday where a bunch of people traveled from up to 400 miles away to climb a live oak. We were shaking hands, sharing gear, etc.

So far, I've bought 4 alcohol squeezermcsqueezies and used them frequently on Saturday. Anyone putting a thermometer in their truck to test the crew, and is that legal? @CanaryBoss , can you telecommute with your tracked unit yet? Where are we all at at, and how will covid-19 change our industry?
 

Reach

Well-Known Member
At this point, it has not been detected in my area, and even if it is it likely will not affect how we work. We will continue to work, as long as we are able.
 

colb

Well-Known Member
At this point, it has not been detected in my area, and even if it is it likely will not affect how we work. We will continue to work, as long as we are able.
I think it's everywhere at this point. It's just not *detected* everywhere... You aren't going to try prevention? I'm not judging, I'm just asking. This statement interests me because I was sensing it before it was said explicitly:

The WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned that the world is in “uncharted territory” and has “never seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can be contained with the right measures”. He said containment must be the top priority for all countries and that there is “no one-size-fits-all approach”.

Source:

I took a graduate-level class in SIR disease transmission modeling in the R language. Usually there is either a snowball effect where almost everyone gets it, or the disease doesn't get far at all. You don't really need a graduate course to know that. This in between thing is tempting decisionmakers to go for prevention and it's hard to tell if that is reasonable or not. It might be something to hope for rather than something that is known. Here is another excerpt from a very interesting article I turfed up:

The clearest sign of the progress in modeling comes from flu forecasts in the U.S. Every year, about two dozen labs try to model the flu season, and have been coming ever closer to accurately forecasting its timing, peak, and short-term intensity. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determines which model did the best; for 2018-2019, it was one from Los Alamos.

Los Alamos also nailed the course of the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, including when it would peak. “And it was spot on in the number of people who would be infected,” said Del Valle: just under 400 in that city, of a global total of about 8,000.

The Covid-19 outbreak in China is quickly spreading worldwide, sparking quick calculations on how deadly this new disease is. One measure is called a case fatality rate. While the formula is simple, it’s difficult to get a precise answer.

The computers that run disease models grind through calculations that reflect researchers’ best estimates of factors that two Scottish researchers identified a century ago as shaping the course of an outbreak: how many people are susceptible, how many are infectious, and how many are recovered (or dead) and presumably immune.

That sounds simple, but errors in any of those estimates can send a model wildly off course. In the autumn of 2014, modelers at CDC projected that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could reach 550,000 to 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone by late January if nothing changed. As it happened, heroic efforts to isolate patients, trace contacts, and stop unsafe burial practices kept the number of cases to 28,600 (and 11,325 deaths).

To calculate how people move from “susceptible” to “infectious” to “recovered,” modelers write equations that include such factors as the number of secondary infections each infected person typically causes and how long it takes from when one person gets sick to when the people she infects does. “These two numbers define the growth rate of an epidemic,” Vespignani said.

Source:

This modeling process looks frustrating. By the time the model is right, it looks like it will be describing what already happened instead of offering a useful projection. But, it also seems like they could make a tool for a person like me to input my behavior, get back a customized projection of my odds of getting covid-19, then toggle my behaviors to discover viable ways to decrease my likelihood.
 

RyanCafferky

Well-Known Member
I'll keep traveling back and forth between home and California for work (both driving and flying) until the risk to my community becomes too great. I am also flying to different places in the country for workshops I'm attending this spring.

This thing will go everywhere. I'm concerned about certain friends and family members but life goes on.
 

JeffGu

Well-Known Member
You may have to make some policy changes... wash hands frequently, cover your snoot when you cough or sneeze, no wanking in the tree, etc.

Can you imagine the headlines?

Arborist sneezes while topping 120' cottonwood tree and infects entire city!
 

Reach

Well-Known Member
I think it's everywhere at this point. It's just not *detected* everywhere... You aren't going to try prevention? I'm not judging, I'm just asking. This statement interests me because I was sensing it before it was said explicitly:

The WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned that the world is in “uncharted territory” and has “never seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can be contained with the right measures”. He said containment must be the top priority for all countries and that there is “no one-size-fits-all approach”.

Source:

I took a graduate-level class in SIR disease transmission modeling in the R language. Usually there is either a snowball effect where almost everyone gets it, or the disease doesn't get far at all. You don't really need a graduate course to know that. This in between thing is tempting decisionmakers to go for prevention and it's hard to tell if that is reasonable or not. It might be something to hope for rather than something that is known. Here is another excerpt from a very interesting article I turfed up:

The clearest sign of the progress in modeling comes from flu forecasts in the U.S. Every year, about two dozen labs try to model the flu season, and have been coming ever closer to accurately forecasting its timing, peak, and short-term intensity. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determines which model did the best; for 2018-2019, it was one from Los Alamos.

Los Alamos also nailed the course of the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, including when it would peak. “And it was spot on in the number of people who would be infected,” said Del Valle: just under 400 in that city, of a global total of about 8,000.

The Covid-19 outbreak in China is quickly spreading worldwide, sparking quick calculations on how deadly this new disease is. One measure is called a case fatality rate. While the formula is simple, it’s difficult to get a precise answer.

The computers that run disease models grind through calculations that reflect researchers’ best estimates of factors that two Scottish researchers identified a century ago as shaping the course of an outbreak: how many people are susceptible, how many are infectious, and how many are recovered (or dead) and presumably immune.

That sounds simple, but errors in any of those estimates can send a model wildly off course. In the autumn of 2014, modelers at CDC projected that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could reach 550,000 to 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone by late January if nothing changed. As it happened, heroic efforts to isolate patients, trace contacts, and stop unsafe burial practices kept the number of cases to 28,600 (and 11,325 deaths).

To calculate how people move from “susceptible” to “infectious” to “recovered,” modelers write equations that include such factors as the number of secondary infections each infected person typically causes and how long it takes from when one person gets sick to when the people she infects does. “These two numbers define the growth rate of an epidemic,” Vespignani said.

Source:

This modeling process looks frustrating. By the time the model is right, it looks like it will be describing what already happened instead of offering a useful projection. But, it also seems like they could make a tool for a person like me to input my behavior, get back a customized projection of my odds of getting covid-19, then toggle my behaviors to discover viable ways to decrease my likelihood.
We are, by nature and market, generally rather hands-off with customers. We also work in a generally rural area, so we don’t have that much contact with great numbers of customers. That being said, I’m not sure how much more we can do to prevent anyone from catching it, besides trying to make sure hand sanitizer is in the trucks and in use, and sending anyone home who appears il - by that point it’s likely already too late though, they’ve already shared.

Your knowledge of virus transmission is impressive, and interesting. I grew up with a mother who is a highly educated nurse, so I know a lot about preventing normal transmissions, but this one seems a bit unique.
 

Matthew Stone

Active Member
With a new baby boy delivered last Monday, I have been relying on hand sanitizer heavily because he was a few weeks early and immune system is very low. The staff suggested we keep him out of reach of anyone besides mom and myself for a minimum or two more weeks, but said if we can, hold out on visitors until after flu season. I explained what I do and how my daily routine puts my little feller in harm's way, and they assured me if I washed my hands or used sanitizer after contact, and didn't let anyone lick me, I would be absolutely fine and so would my boy. I've been taking my cloths off in the laundry room so as not to drag extra germs in and hitting the shower asap. I think if the boss bought hand sanitizer and mandated it's use on site after eating and bathroom breaks it'd be really good for overall practice, anyway. Most of our clients are upscale , healthy people so as an industry we don't have to be quite as scared as say... A Walmart employee. Just my perspective
 

John@TreeXP

Well-Known Member
Being near Seattle, the old folk homes and schools seem to be getting hit first. Other than that, emergency facilities may eventually reach maximum capacity, but for now only certain food, health and cleaning products are getting harder to acquire. Common sense suggest that it helps to frequently wash and disinfect your hands, use a N95 rated face mask in public areas like buses, avoid public gatherings and touching places prone to being touched by many hands. This beast is a moving target and things may get a lot worse before it gets better. Good luck everyone!
 
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colb

Well-Known Member
You may have to make some policy changes... wash hands frequently, cover your snoot when you cough or sneeze, no wanking in the tree, etc.

Can you imagine the headlines?

Arborist sneezes while topping 120' cottonwood tree and infects entire city!
Better than "arborist wanks... "...
 

colb

Well-Known Member
With a new baby boy delivered last Monday, I have been relying on hand sanitizer heavily because he was a few weeks early and immune system is very low. The staff suggested we keep him out of reach of anyone besides mom and myself for a minimum or two more weeks, but said if we can, hold out on visitors until after flu season. I explained what I do and how my daily routine puts my little feller in harm's way, and they assured me if I washed my hands or used sanitizer after contact, and didn't let anyone lick me, I would be absolutely fine and so would my boy. I've been taking my cloths off in the laundry room so as not to drag extra germs in and hitting the shower asap. I think if the boss bought hand sanitizer and mandated it's use on site after eating and bathroom breaks it'd be really good for overall practice, anyway. Most of our clients are upscale , healthy people so as an industry we don't have to be quite as scared as say... A Walmart employee. Just my perspective
I was just in Walmart tonight. That self checkout looks like a nightmare now.

I think you should disrobe in the yard and apply full body hand sanitizer there. Might have the side effect of keeping the neighbors away. Might cause them to stop by with cookies despite your COVID-19... Either way, you'll know where you stand, and they'll also know where you stand- naked!

But seriously, wish you success with escorting your newborn through a trying time, and congratulations on his arrival!
 

Matthew Stone

Active Member
Thanks, colb! We appreciate that. I hope the same for everybody, might not amount to much but we could all be in for a rollercoaster ride if everybody doesn't keep clean. The mountains of wood all over my yard have already made me super popular with the neighbors but if I read that right, you're on to something. Maybe just stand a log up and give a few swings around on the way to the door.. leave a tip if you like what you see, Hank and Gloria! The show starts around 7 every night this summer!!
 

CanaryBoss

Well-Known Member
Other than vacationing on cruise lines, how is the covid-19 affecting us, and how should it affect us? I've stopped shaking hands, but I have to keep handling ropes, saws, and other stuff that my crew are handling as well. I have to keep pumping gas, buying groceries, etc. I was at a rec climb on Saturday where a bunch of people traveled from up to 400 miles away to climb a live oak. We were shaking hands, sharing gear, etc.

I’m thinking I’m not the solution here
So far, I've bought 4 alcohol squeezermcsqueezies and used them frequently on Saturday. Anyone putting a thermometer in their truck to test the crew, and is that legal? @CanaryBoss , can you telecommute with your tracked unit yet? Where are we all at at, and how will covid-19 change our industry?
 

timmysaint

Member
I think, as Arborists, we're pretty lucky, in that we're not cooped up in a cubicle all day. We're outside (making us stronger, and healthier) and keeping away from close contact with people, for the most part.

I didn't really think this was going to be a big deal, and then I had a quote for a local guy who works at the hospital, and I'm like: Is this over-hyped or what?

He was like: We're terrified. We have one ventilator in a town of 100,000. Good ole socialized medicine, I guess. Everyone gets 'free', shitty health care...

I don't have hand sanitizer or anything in my truck - I use a contra-approach. It's so dirty, that I don't even think bacteria would want to live there.

Anyway, we have 30 suspected cases in my relatively small town this morning, so looks like School Summer vacation is coming early for the kids this year! Canada has had a really great strategy for coronavirus- we let in everyone, without any screening, and when someone is confirmed with CV we ask them to please 'self quarantine at home'.
 
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